Wall Street research analysts told potential investors in SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) that models expect the company's artificial intelligence (AI) unit revenue to grow 100 times by the end of the decade to justify a target valuation of $1.8 trillion.
Evercore ISI research analysts expect SpaceX's AI unit to reach $755 billion in sales by 2031, according to a person familiar with the matter, up from $3.2 billion last year. People familiar with the matter also said that the research team expects total revenue to exceed $1 trillion by 2031, compared with $18.7 billion in 2025. The people spoke on condition of anonymity because the information has not been made public.
Wall Street firms met with potential buyers Thursday morning to promote a historic IPO for Elon Musk's rocket, satellite and AI company. The company had previously launched the promotion process for a US$75 billion IPO, expected to be the largest IPO in history, with an issue price of US$135 per share.
The research team of Goldman Sachs Group has listed ambitious expected goals before the end of this decade. According to some people familiar with the matter, analysts expect total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, and AI revenue is expected to increase by about 100 times to nearly $322 billion. Evercore predicts total revenue will reach $486 billion in 2030, with AI revenue reaching $331 billion, a person familiar with the matter said.
According to people familiar with the matter, the Goldman Sachs team expects free cash flow to turn positive to more than US$72 billion in 2031, after free cash flow fell to a low of negative US$105 billion in 2029.
Evercore ISI's research team predicts that AI will account for 74% of the company's revenue from less than one-fifth by 2031, with the company's aerospace business accounting for 1% of revenue from more than 20% last year, one of the people said.
Both Wall Street firms expect sales from SpaceX's connectivity unit -- which largely consists of its satellite internet service -- to grow to more than $140 billion in 2030 from about $11.4 billion last year, people familiar with the matter said. Meanwhile, the rocket unit is expected to bring in about $8 billion in revenue in 2030, nearly double last year's $4.1 billion in sales, one of the people said.
Wall Street also predicts SpaceX's capital expenditures will soar to more than $360 billion in 2030, up from more than $20 billion last year, people familiar with the matter said. Evercore predicts that SpaceX’s spending will almost double to $732 billion in 2031, of which about $666 billion will be spent on artificial intelligence-related fields, more than 50 times last year.
A SpaceX spokesperson has not yet commented. Representatives for Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI declined to comment.