Abstract:
A latest research report shows that despite strict restrictions on the export of advanced EUV lithography machines, mainland China's wafer manufacturing companies have continued to purchase immersion DUV lithography equipment in recent years and have established a considerable reserve of advanced lithography capabilities. The study believes that these equipment are sufficient to support a certain scale of 7-nanometer chip production and may weaken some of the effects of existing export control measures.
The report was released by the Center for Technology & Statecraft (CTS), a think tank in Washington, DC. The report estimates that as of early 2026, wafer fabs controlled by Chinese companies have a total of approximately 343 immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, excluding equipment held by multinational companies operating wafer fabs in China.
The report believes that China's semiconductor industry has actively purchased chip manufacturing equipment in the past few years, especially in the context of the United States' continuous strengthening of export restrictions, and related procurement activities have accelerated significantly. A large amount of equipment was delivered before further upgrades were restricted, providing basic conditions for China's advanced process expansion.
According to research data, approximately 270 of these 343 devices are ASML’s Twinscan NXT:1980i immersion lithography machines. This equipment has a resolution of 38 nanometers and an overlay accuracy of 2.5 nanometers, and is believed to be able to achieve 7-nanometer logic chip manufacturing through multiple exposure technology. In addition, Chinese companies are said to own 22 NXT:2050i and 6 NXT:2000i systems.
Researchers pointed out that although these equipment cannot be compared with EUV lithography machines, immersion DUV can still undertake advanced process production tasks in the absence of EUV supply. By adding exposure steps and adopting more complex processes, manufacturers still have the opportunity to produce 7-nanometer chips and some advanced memory products.
The report believes that there is an important loophole in the current export control, that is, many DUV equipment originally used for mature process production can be transferred to more advanced production lines in the future. Although this method will increase manufacturing costs and process complexity, it is still a feasible option when EUV equipment is not available.
Based on this judgment, CTS recommends further expanding the scope of restrictions, not only restricting advanced EUV equipment, but also banning the export of all immersion DUV lithography machines to China, while restricting the supply of spare parts and maintenance services required for deployed equipment. This proposal is partially consistent with the MATCH Act proposed by the United States in April this year.
The report also admitted that it is still unclear how many advanced DUV equipment delivered to China are actually in operation. However, researchers believe that even if some equipment has not yet been fully put into production, the existing installed capacity has formed the basis of advanced manufacturing capabilities that cannot be ignored.
Public data shows that the Dutch government began to implement an export licensing system for ASML's NXT:2000i and more advanced immersed DUV equipment in September 2023. In fact, related products can no longer be delivered to China. The restrictions have since been extended to more advanced models.
The research also mentioned that Chinese companies will continue to purchase NXT:1980i equipment on a large scale in 2024 and 2025, adding approximately 90 and 89 units respectively in the two years, with the cumulative purchase amount exceeding US$13 billion. During the same period, the Chinese market's share of ASML's global sales also remained at a high level.
Those who support further tightening of restrictions believe that these equipment may continue to promote the growth of China's advanced chip manufacturing capabilities in the future and provide a production base for products such as artificial intelligence chips. Therefore, some U.S. policymakers are seeking to close this supply channel, which is considered a "DUV loophole."
However, some analysts pointed out that even if new equipment exports are completely stopped in the future, the large equipment inventory accumulated by Chinese companies will not disappear in the short term. Therefore, for the advanced chip industry, the focus of future competition will not only be on whether new equipment can be obtained, but also whether existing equipment can continue to receive maintenance, upgrades and long-term operation support.
As competition in the global semiconductor industry continues to intensify, immersion DUV lithography machines are becoming a new strategic focus after EUV, and the game surrounding related equipment exports, maintenance and service systems may also become an important issue in the international semiconductor industry in the next few years.
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