Abstract:
The Rassvet satellite Internet network project under construction in Russia has recently exposed new technical problems. According to data from the satellite tracking platform N2YO cited by the Institute for War Studies (ISW), all 16 Dawn satellites launched in June this year have failed to reach their scheduled working orbits.
According to the original plan, these satellites should operate in an orbit about 870 kilometers above the ground, but actual conditions show that many satellites are currently only operating within an altitude range of 300 to 400 kilometers, and some satellites have even begun to continuously lower their orbital altitudes. Two of the satellites are re-entering the Earth's atmosphere.
The "Dawn" project is developed by the Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 and is regarded as an important plan for Russia to build a local low-orbit satellite Internet system and replace the American SpaceX "Starlink" network.
Experts point out that too low an orbital altitude will directly affect the life of the satellite. The closer a satellite is to the earth, the stronger the atmospheric resistance it encounters, requiring more fuel to be consumed to maintain its established orbit. Once a satellite is unable to reach or maintain its design altitude, its service life may be significantly shortened and it may be retired from operation early.
This launch is the second batch of networking missions of the "Dawn" project. Russia previously launched the first batch of 16 satellites in March this year, but problems also occurred with this batch. One of the satellites, numbered "Object 4", fell out of orbit in June. The Institute for War Studies said that of the first batch of 16 satellites launched, only 12 successfully reached the expected orbital altitude.
Despite the current difficulties, Russia has set ambitious development goals for the project. Bureau 1440 plans to build a large-scale constellation network consisting of 900 satellites by 2035, and hopes to have 250 satellites in operation by 2027. Analysts believe that orbital anomalies in two consecutive launch missions may pose challenges to the achievement of these goals.
Research institutions evaluate that to build a satellite Internet system with truly broadband communication capabilities, relying solely on dozens of satellites is far from enough. The Institute of War Research estimates that Russia needs at least 200 to 300 "Dawn" satellites in normal operation to achieve 24-hour continuous coverage in Ukraine.
Currently, due to a limited number of satellites, the network can only provide coverage windows twice a day, each lasting up to approximately 90 minutes. This is a significant limitation for satellite Internet systems designed to provide continuous communications services.
Satellite internet networks typically rely on large numbers of satellites operating in coordinated orbits. When one satellite goes beyond the visual range of the user terminal, another satellite can immediately take over its work, ensuring uninterrupted communication. If there are not enough available satellites, users can only get connectivity within a limited time window and cannot achieve continuous online service. According to reports, Russia’s accelerated advancement of the Dawn project is related to the previous introduction of a whitelist mechanism for Starlink. This mechanism is designed to prevent unauthorized users from accessing the network, including the needs of the Russian military. Against this background, it has become even more important for Moscow to establish a satellite communications system that is completely controlled by Russia.
At present, the "Dawn" project is still in the early construction stage, but the first two launch missions have exposed several key issues. In the future, the plan will not only need to prove that it can accurately deliver satellites into target orbits, but also ensure the long-term stable operation of satellites and the ability to quickly replenish new satellites, thereby gradually establishing a reliable satellite Internet network.
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