Abstract:
UBS reiterated its "neutral" rating on Apple and maintained a target price of $296. The bank's latest tracking data shows that initial demand for the iPhone 18 Pro series has been relatively flat since pre-orders opened last Saturday.
By tracking the supply and delivery of iPhones in more than 30 markets around the world, UBS Evidence Lab uses the waiting time for new phones as an important indicator of supply and demand. Under normal circumstances, on the premise that there is no significant change in supply capacity, a longer waiting time means that orders are more robust relative to existing supply and the relationship between supply and demand is tighter; a shorter waiting time usually means that demand is relatively mild, or that supply can meet orders faster.
Data shows that the current global average waiting time for iPhone 18 Pro Max is about 23 days, which is about 2 days shorter than the same period last year. The overall waiting time in the Asian market has also been shortened compared with last year, with the Chinese market shortened by about 4 days compared with the same period last year, and the waiting time in Japan was basically the same as last year.
The global average waiting time for iPhone 18 Pro is about 16 days, which is also about 2 days shorter than last year. The United States is one of the few markets where the waiting time has increased, extending by about 1 day year-on-year; the Asian market as a whole is significantly weaker, with the Chinese market's waiting time shortening by about 10 days year-on-year, and the Japanese market's performance relatively stable.
However, UBS pointed out that waiting time data in some Asian markets may be affected by consumers delaying purchases. Especially in China, some consumers may be waiting for the Duo model that Apple plans to launch next month, so the current delivery cycle of the Pro series may not fully reflect final demand.
Regarding the short initial waiting time for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, UBS believes there are three main reasons: First, the demand for the iPhone 17 series has been relatively strong in the past 12 months, which may have released some demand for replacement in advance; second, the upgrade of the new generation Pro series is relatively limited compared to the previous generation, which does not provide enough stimulation for consumers to switch; third, the average selling price of new phones has further increased, which may also suppress some demand.
Overall, UBS has yet to see signs of significant acceleration in demand for the iPhone 18 Pro series from the first round of booking and delivery cycle data, so it continues to maintain its "neutral" rating and $296 target price on Apple stock.
Comments