A study conducted by a Hungarian scientific research team shows that when the weather becomes cloudy, wet, windy, and changes drastically, the number of neurological patients visiting the emergency room will increase significantly, including cases of stroke and cerebral hemorrhage. The findings, published in the journal Heliyon, suggest an observable link between unstable weather such as storms and brain health, and that weather and climate fluctuations may be one of the important environmental factors that influence the onset of neurological diseases.
Different from previous studies that mostly focused on a single meteorological element (such as temperature or pressure), this study adopted a synoptic climatology method to focus on examining the overall pattern of large-scale weather systems in a certain area and its impact on medical data. The study area was chosen in the Carpathian Basin (often also called the Pannonian Basin), and the research team came from institutions such as Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME), Semmelweis University, and Jan Ferenc South Budapest Hospital and Clinic.
The researchers collected records of 34,650 patients with neurological symptoms who attended the emergency department of a large county hospital in Budapest between 2015 and 2019. They then used a weather type classification method called the Péczely classification to classify the daily weather conditions during the study period to explore the correspondence between different weather types and the number of neurological emergency visits.
The Péczely classification divides weather into 13 different weather types, providing a structured framework for analyzing the “phenomenological link” between complex atmospheric circulation and emergency department patient volume. Brigitta Szilágyi, associate professor at Corvinus University and BME, one of the study leaders, points out that this classification helps to understand the weather-related changes in emergency department visits in a broader meteorological context.
By mathematically modeling these weather patterns with neurological emergency data, the researchers found that the number of neurological patients admitted to the emergency department increased significantly when certain weather patterns occurred. Particularly on days classified as Péczely Types 4 and 7 - a type of weather that is typically cloudy, windy, humid and unsettled - there was a significant increase in emergency room visits compared to normal levels.
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Gábor Lovas, a neurologist from the Jahn Ferenc Hospital and Clinic in South Budapest, explains that on wet, windy, erratic days when temperature, air pressure and humidity can all fluctuate rapidly, these environmental factors add up to an additional burden on the cardiovascular system and central nervous system. Epidemiological studies have suggested that such weather conditions are associated with increased emergency department visits for neurological events such as ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and epileptic seizures, particularly in people with pre-existing neurological or vascular disease.
Lovas noted that possible mechanisms include increased blood pressure fluctuations, dehydration, autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and changes in sleep patterns, which may induce cerebrovascular events or further decompensate patients in an already vulnerable state. In addition, adverse weather can disrupt sleep and circadian rhythms by raising nighttime temperatures, increasing noise, and changing air pressure, factors that are widely considered to be important triggers of epileptic seizures, delirium, and the progression of dementia.
Links between storms or extreme weather and increased hospitalizations for conditions such as epilepsy, dementia and stroke have also been reported in larger population-scale studies. These results reinforce the idea that climate and weather variability are important moderators of brain health and not just irrelevant context.
To improve the hospital's ability to respond to such weather-related fluctuations in visits, the research team also built a set of predictive simulation models to estimate expected patient volume in emergency neurology departments on specific days using the Péczely weather classification. Bence Sipos, a PhD student from BME, said the model fit the actual data well and has direct implications for hospital resource planning.
Sipos said certain weather transition phases can increase daily emergency neurology department visits by 50% to 80% above average weekdays. Because Péczely types can be known in advance from regular weather forecast charts, hospital administrators can use the forecast to schedule additional neurologists and on-call resources in advance on days with predicted high loads.
Szilágyi added that this type of modeling work not only helps hospitals prepare for potential spikes in visits, but also emphasizes the importance of patient education. She believes that increasing public awareness of the relationship between weather and health is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce the burden on the health care system. The findings suggest weather may play a more important role in brain health than previously thought.
Next, the research team plans to further analyze more specific meteorological parameters, such as temperature changes, humidity, or their derivatives (such as the somatosensory temperature index), and how these factors together with environmental variables such as air pollution affect the number of emergency neurology visits on "storm days" and "stable days." This will allow for a more detailed breakdown of the specific effects of weather changes on different types of neurological diseases.
Folk experience has long linked weather and seasonal changes to increased risk of mood swings, worsening migraines, seizures, and strokes. This study provides some data to support these rumors, showing that there is indeed a link between weather and brain health that is worthy of attention. The research was published in the journal Heliyon, and the accompanying scientific brief was published by Corvinus University in Budapest and reviewed by independent fact-checkers.