Abstract:
Tesla said on Tuesday that its FSD supervisory version of the software was 4.1 times less likely to be involved in a crash in Europe than human-driven Tesla vehicles. Tesla Europe branch in X The platform posted that this conclusion is based on driving data of approximately 102 million kilometers in five European countries between April and August. The company said the EU could start as early as October 6 A vote will be held today to approve the wider use of the FSD supervisory version.
Currently, more than 70,000 users use the FSD supervisory version in the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania, and the system records more than 1 million kilometers of driving mileage every day.
A total of 3 highway collisions and 9 non-highway collisions occurred in vehicles with the FSD system enabled; while for manually driven Tesla vehicles, the corresponding accidents were 137 and 490 respectively. Since the total mileage of the two groups of vehicles was not the same, Tesla compared the accident rate per kilometer traveled and concluded that the probability of a collision with FSD was 4.1 times lower.
However, Tesla warned that the comparison between the FSD supervisory version and manual driving is an observational analysis and cannot fully take into account factors such as weather, traffic conditions, and the driver's timing of turning on the FSD system.
The Netherlands provisionally approved the FSD supervision version in April this year, and four other countries followed suit. Broader EU approval would require the support of 15 member states, representing 65% of the EU's population.
The outcome is far from certain. France and Sweden have raised concerns over issues including speeding and driver monitoring.
Currently, traders in the prediction market are still skeptical about Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities. They estimate that the probability of Tesla launching a public driverless online ride-hailing service in California before December 31 is about 17%.
They also expressed doubts that Tesla can achieve its Cybercab price target this year. Polymarket data shows Tesla has only a 12% chance of selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less by the end of the year.
European approval would mark progress towards a supervised version of Tesla's FSD, but prediction markets show traders remain skeptical about how quickly this progress can translate into fully driverless vehicles and commercial Cybercab sales.
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