B[Organization: TSMC’s third-quarter net profit is expected to surge 65% year-on-year, hitting a record high for six consecutive quarters] On October 12, TSMC, the world’s largest advanced AI chip foundry, will announce its third-quarter financial report on Thursday. It is widely predicted that, driven by the AI craze, TSMC is expected to achieve record profits for the sixth consecutive quarter. LSEG SmartEstimate summarizes the forecasts of 16 analysts and shows that TSMC's net profit in the third quarter is expected to increase by 65% year-on-year to NT$746.3 billion (equivalent to US$23.4 billion). If the net profit exceeds NT$706.56 billion, it will once again set a record high for the company's single-quarter net profit and achieve 11 consecutive quarters of profit growth. Last Thursday, preliminary data released by TSMC showed that the company's third-quarter revenue was NT$1.49 trillion (approximately US$46.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 51%, exceeding market expectations and setting a record high. A[Overnight global news you need to know on Wednesday: Many Federal Reserve officials called for continued interest rate increases, the United States announced the release of strategic oil reserves, Trump signed an AI document, and most European and American stock markets fell]
1. Fed Barr said that it may be necessary to continue to raise interest rates; policies need to be recalibrated. The basic situation is that further policy adjustments may be needed.
2. Fed Williams said that if the economy meets expectations, it may raise interest rates again this year. He also said that after raising interest rates in September, "there is no need to rush into action."
3. Fed Musallem said that even after the latest interest rate hike, monetary policy is still slightly loose.
4. Federal Reserve Goolsby said that the United States is playing with fire by remaining above its inflation target for five and a half years.
5. Traders have reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October. The market currently believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October is about 50%, which is lower than the previous expectation of about 70%.
6. Demarco of the European Central Bank said that the recent rise in long-term bond yields is quite worrying and he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates in October.
7. The United States announced that it will provide up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to increase market supply.
8. Sources said that the White House has urged the European Union to use emergency diesel stocks to reduce global diesel prices.
9. Many representatives said that OPEC+ may stick to its oil production quota plan.
10. Trump will announce a $54 billion Alaska LNG plan.
11. Trump said that he has signed an artificial intelligence document and is considering establishing a 10-member committee to oversee artificial intelligence.
12. The U.S. import ban on nearly $1 billion in Canadian goods officially came into effect on September 29, local time.
13. U.S. Treasury yields continued to surge during the session on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.6%, continuing to hit a new high since 2002. Barclays predicts that the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield may rise to 6%, and Wells Fargo predicts that the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield will reach 5.25%-5.75% by the end of 2027.
14. Deutsche Bank said that Muse has opened up the entrance to AI consumption, and its revenue in 2030 may exceed US$36 billion.
15. OpenAI launched the all-weather autonomous agent Dots and the GPT-6.1 Sol model, and will launch the GPT‑6.1 Sol ultra-fast version in the next few days. OpenAI reportedly plans to raise $30 billion at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. CEO Altman said there is no IPO timetable.
16. Tesla signed a US$30 billion financing arrangement, including revolving credit and delayed withdrawal loans.
17. Paramount Tianwu’s high-rated bond issuance received US$109 billion in subscription demand.
18. It is reported that Apple will launch Apple Pay in India.
19. Meta announced the launch of Muse, an AI agent for small businesses, which can currently be connected to multiple enterprise tools such as Canva, Dropbox, Figma, Notion, and Zoom.
20. NVIDIA is negotiating with insurance companies to discuss how to share the risks associated with its AI chip loan business.
21. KKR has reached an agreement to acquire a majority stake in Cisternina Logistics, an Indian liquid warehousing and logistics company.
22. AT&T and Corning signed a multi-year fiber optic supply agreement worth more than $3 billion. AT&T has pledged to invest more than $250 billion in U.S. connectivity over the next five years.
23. Samsung Electronics plans to start mass production of the third-generation 2nm process in 2028, and launch mass production of the 1.4nm process in 2029.
24. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.26%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.09%. Apple fell 2.66%. New CEO Ternus is pushing the company to carry out comprehensive reforms. Most major European stock indexes closed lower, with Germany's DAX30 index falling 0.06%.
25. The settlement price of international crude oil futures closed sharply. WTI crude oil futures November contract fell 3.48%, Brent crude oil futures November contract fell 2.56%.
26. COMEX gold futures rose 1.12% to US$4,215 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.21% to US$61.84 per ounce. A[Overview of U.S. stock market pre-market news: Meta launches Muse, an AI agent for small businesses; NVIDIA wants to attract insurance companies to cover the financing risks of AI chips; Anthropic's prospectus is exposed] On September 29, the financial news in the U.S. stock market that investors need to focus on is as follows:
1. The three major U.S. stock index futures turned from falling to rising. Dow Jones futures rose 0.17%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.34%.
2. International oil prices turned from rising to falling. WTI crude oil futures prices fell 2.21% to US$90.558/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices fell 1.79% to US$96.082/barrel.
3. International gold and silver spot prices both rose. Spot gold prices rose 0.99% to US$4,155.75 per ounce; spot silver prices rose 0.25% to US$60.77 per ounce.
4. The three major European stock indexes rose across the board. Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.16%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.19%, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.75%.
5. Meta announced the launch of Muse, an AI agent for small businesses, which can assist in running businesses, finding customers, and analyzing sales and financial data based on goals set by users. Muse can currently connect to multiple enterprise tools such as Canva, Dropbox, Figma, Notion, and Zoom.
6. NVIDIA is negotiating with insurance companies to discuss how to share the risks associated with its AI chip loan business. Huang Renxun believes that chips should be regarded as an "investable asset class" and used to transfer risks and costs between users and investors.
7. Samsung Electronics stated that its foundry business plans to expand into the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) in the future. Samsung plans to start mass production of the third-generation 2nm process in 2028, and launch mass production of the 1.4nm process in 2029.
8. TrendForce research shows that HBM and traditional DRAM are still competing for limited advanced process and wafer production capacity. The HBM price outlook for next year has been revised upward, and the annual comprehensive average selling price is expected to increase by 121%.
9. Anthropic’s prospectus shows that the company’s revenue for fiscal year 2025 will be approximately US$4.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11 times, and its adjusted operating loss during the same period will exceed US$8 billion. The company plans to invest US$518 billion in cloud, computing power and infrastructure construction in the next few years.
10. Tesla postponed the launch of the new Roadster from October 1st to the 15th, citing severe weather forecast and the fact that the event could only be held outdoors.
11. American retailer Target announced that it has lowered the prices of nearly 2,000 home, clothing and accessories products. The prices of some clothing and footwear products have dropped by more than 20% year-on-year. Target said it has cut prices on more than 10,000 products in the past year. B[AI demand is strong, TSMC's joint-stock company VIS Singapore's first wafer fab is fully operational] September 28th, it is reported that TSMC's joint-stock chip manufacturer VIS held an opening ceremony for its first advanced chip manufacturing factory in Singapore on Monday, and has set its sights on building a second factory. Driven by the craze for artificial intelligence infrastructure, new factory capacity has been "sold out" as soon as it comes into operation. The fab, called VSMC, is a joint venture between VIS and European chipmaker NXP. The factory started trial production in June, and it took only 18 months from the start of construction to trial production, much faster than the more than two years it usually takes to build a chip factory. VIS said the yield rate of the first batch of chips is at least 99%. The factory plans to start mass production in early 2027. The factory will also help TSMC produce key "interposers" for advanced chip packaging, serving as substrates for connecting different types of chips and serving leading AI chip manufacturers such as Nvidia, Google and Broadcom. TSMC is the largest shareholder of VIS, holding about 19% of the shares. B[After more than 4 months in orbit, the Shenzhou 23 crew completed many tasks including loading and unloading the load module] September 27th (Xinhua) Shenzhou 23 crew astronauts Zhu Yangzhu, Zhang Zhiyuan, and Li Jiaying have been in orbit for more than 4 months. Last week, while steadily advancing various space science experiments (experiments) in the station and carrying out regular maintenance of the assembly platform, they also completed the work related to the loading and unloading of the load module. The extravehicular universal test equipment for components and components that went out of the cabin this time includes test units such as "hollow photonic bandgap fiber optic gyroscope", "advanced process devices" and "remote sensing target detection based on domestic AI chips", which are used to carry out experiments on new space technologies and applications. With the support and cooperation of ground personnel, the crew completed the return to the cabin of the material external exposure experimental device. Since this device was launched into orbit with the Tianzhou-5 cargo spacecraft on November 12, 2022, it has carried out 3 batches of exposure experiments totaling 16 projects, creating many international firsts. Currently, the fourth experiment is being carried out, covering 8 scientific research projects and 26 unit samples.
Last week, various space science experiments (experiments) were carried out in an orderly manner in the cabin. The crew conducted mass perception and arm vibration experimental tests of the on-orbit tactile perception experiment project to study the changing rules of astronauts' tactile perception ability during space flight. They also completed emergency decision-making ability assessment and on-orbit emotional state testing, and continued to accumulate test data. In terms of maintenance of the space station complex platform, the crew replaced components in the water and gas separation device of the regenerative life support system. In addition, the astronauts completed medical examinations such as 12-lead electrocardiograms and non-invasive cardiac function tests, and used equipment such as bone loss countermeasures and neuromuscular stimulators to combat the physiological effects of weightlessness. (CCTV News) B[Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming: In the future, the total amount of machine thinking will be more than 1,000 times that of humans] On September 22, at the 2026 Hangzhou Yunqi Conference, Alibaba Group CEO Wu Yongming delivered his latest speech, explaining his thoughts on the "machine intelligence" era. He believes that machines are becoming the main force of thinking, and intelligence is becoming a large-scale commodity. In the future, the total amount of thinking by machines will reach more than 1,000 times that of humans. Wu Yongming said that AI models, AI chips and AI cloud are the three cornerstones of the machine intelligence era, and Alibaba will firmly invest in the construction of these three infrastructures. This is Alibaba's long-term strategic choice. B[CITIC Securities: Extreme Cooling Debuts, Diamond Ushers in the First Year of Industrialization] On September 19th, CITIC Securities research report stated that driven by three factors: the sharp increase in power consumption of AI chips, the approach of traditional metal heat dissipation to the physical limit, and the continuous optimization of diamond preparation technology, the diamond cooling industry is expected to usher in investment opportunities in the first year of industrialization. CITIC Securities recommends focusing on two main lines of layout: first, focusing on the industry leaders, taking the lead in small-batch supply of heat sinks, self-researching equipment, and leading production capacity scale; second, focusing on related companies with leading technology, large-scale manufacturing and full industry chain capabilities, and accelerating production expansion layout. B[The concept of cultured diamonds moved up and Hengsheng Energy raised the daily limit] On September 14th, the concept of cultured diamonds moved up during the day, and Hengsheng Energy raised the daily limit. Inno Laser and Power Diamond rose by more than 10%, and Huifeng Diamond, Huanghe Tornado, Sifangda, etc. quickly followed suit. On the news, an institutional research report pointed out that diamond copper is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale application due to its triple advantages of thermal conductivity, cost and thermal expansion matching. From 2025 to 2029, the compound growth rate of the global AI chip diamond copper market is expected to reach 237%, and the market space is expected to expand to US$6.5 billion. Domestic targets with production expansion capabilities, customer verification and drill synergy advantages are entering the window for small batch order fulfillment. B[The first "Space Computing Power Key Technology and Scenario Verification Laboratory" was officially established] "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reported on the 12th that at the "Space Computing Power Innovation and Development" special forum at the 2026 China Computing Power Conference, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the Beijing Institute of Space Computing formally established the "Space Computing Power Key Technology and Scenario Verification Laboratory". According to reports, this is the industry's first laboratory focusing on space computing power key technologies and multi-scenario integrated verification. The laboratory is mainly constructed around four major contents. First, carry out joint research on cutting-edge common key technologies such as radiation-resistant spaceborne AI chips, inter-satellite high-speed communications, and distributed resource collaborative scheduling. The second is to build a ground verification test site with "one center, two modules, four stations, and one base" to carry out pilot and engineering test verification of space computing power. The third is to promote the verification of multi-domain typical scenarios in the direction of space situation awareness, space-based assisted intelligent driving, weather forecast and early warning, etc. The fourth is to develop relevant standards and specifications. (Kechuangban Daily reporter Li Mingming) A[September 11 morning news selection]
1. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Republic of India, President Xi Jinping will go to New Delhi, India, from September 12 to 13 to attend the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Meeting.
2. Lu Lei, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the press conference on the theme of "Getting Started with the 15th Five-Year Plan" held by the State Council Information Office on September 10 that the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Financial Power" was officially launched recently. In order to implement relevant arrangements, the People's Bank of China formulated and issued the "People's Bank of China's "15th Five-Year Plan" Reform and Development Plan" and issued nine supporting action plans in related fields.
3. At the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce on the 10th, Huang Ling, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said in response to relevant questions that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States have conscientiously implemented the consensus reached by the two heads of state in Beijing, and are negotiating on the framework arrangement for reciprocal tax reductions of US$30 billion, striving for early implementation.
4. The central bank issued an announcement that in order to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system, the People's Bank of China will carry out overnight reverse repurchase operations from September 14 to September 17, using fixed interest rates and quantity bidding, and the daily operation volume will not exceed 600 billion yuan.
5. Li Chao, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the afternoon of the 10th that greater efforts should be made to release the vitality of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring reforms, and support the transformation and upgrading of listed companies, and make them better and stronger; more inclusive systems for issuance and listing, mergers and acquisitions and restructurings will be implemented, and efforts will be made to build the A-share market as the first choice for domestic high-quality companies to list; it will promote the steady increase in the scale and proportion of medium- and long-term funds entering the market, and vigorously develop equity public funds.
6. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on matters related to the cost accounting of low-price and disorderly competition for important industrial products, focusing on the production fields of important industrial products where the problem of low-price and disorderly competition is prominent, reminding and warning operators suspected of low-price and disorderly competition, and organizing cost investigations when necessary to calculate the relevant costs of operators.
7. The "Chongqing Action Plan to Cultivate and Develop Ci Yuan Economy (2026-2028) (Draft for Public Comments)" is publicly soliciting opinions. It mentioned that financial institutions are supported to explore new models such as "computing power banks" and "Ciyuan bonds + Ciyuan loans", and innovate the real estate investment trust fund model in the field of data infrastructure.
8. While the industry is in high prosperity, hidden concerns about energy storage capacity expansion are also accelerating. In response to market rumors that the approval of new energy storage battery projects may be tightened, we have recently verified with a number of battery companies that the news is true.
9. It is reported that Chinese AI chip manufacturers, including Cambrian, have significantly increased the prices of existing and new generation AI processors. In this regard, the company's wiring staff said that the company has not announced any news related to price increases.
10. I learned from Xinhu Group that Xinhu Group has recently formally submitted complaint materials to the Supreme People’s Court regarding the “10 billion mineral rights case” that has attracted widespread attention in the capital market.
11. Youcai Resources announced that the actual controller has been changed to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Office of Jiangyin Municipal People’s Government, and the stock trading has resumed.
12. Yuanwanggu announced that it plans to acquire 100% equity of Guangtai Communications. The target company is mainly engaged in automated coupling equipment for optical communication devices and modules.
13. Suiyuan Technology was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board today, with an issue price of 142.18 yuan per share.
14. Zhuhai Guanyu stated on the interactive platform that the company currently supplies battery cells for this customer’s laptops and a variety of mobile phones, including folding machines.
15. It is reported that Chinese AI chip manufacturers, including Cambrian, have significantly increased the prices of existing and new generation AI processors. In this regard, the wiring staff of Cambrian Company said that the company has not released any news related to price increases.
16. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.65%, and the S&P 500 Index falling 0.58%. Storage sector and copper concept stocks fell; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 2%.
17. The U.S. PPI increased by 5.4% year-on-year in August, which was estimated to be 5.3% and the previous value was 4.7%. The month-on-month increase was 0.4%, compared with expectations of 0.4%.
18. The European Central Bank raised the deposit mechanism interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.90%, in line with market expectations.
19. Yemen’s Houthi armed forces stated on the 10th that international ships passing through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are “not threatened” and are still safe.
20. The settlement price of international crude oil futures rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures closed at US$102.48 per barrel, an increase of 6.69%; Brent crude oil futures closed at US$107.63 per barrel, an increase of 6.34%. The national average diesel price in the United States has exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time.
21. The yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds continues to rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.34% during the session, a new high since June 2007. Freddie Mac said U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.76%, the highest level since June 2025.
22. According to Iranian news on the 10th, Iran ordered the suspension of a 10% freight surcharge on foreign energy transport ships entering and exiting the country.
23. The US weather forecast agency stated that the probability of a very strong El Niño during the autumn and winter of 2026-27 in the northern hemisphere is over 90%.
24. Oracle’s adjusted revenue in the first fiscal quarter was US$19.35 billion, and the market forecast was US$19.13 billion. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal year to be US$8.10; total revenue in the second fiscal quarter is expected to increase by 30% to 34%.
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